The Number Keeps Moving
Australia's nuclear submarines, in the dollar figures actually published, since 2009.
The dollar figure for Australia's nuclear submarines has never gone down.
In May 2009, Kevin Rudd's Defence White Paper committed Australia to a fleet of twelve conventional submarines to replace the Collins class. The cost was not separately quoted; the entire ten-year capital plan was $100 billion. SEA 1000, the project to design and build the submarines, was the single largest line item.
In February 2016, Malcolm Turnbull's Defence White Paper committed to twelve regionally superior submarines and a French Barracuda-derived design subsequently named the Attack class. The headline acquisition figure given to the public was more than fifty billion dollars. Sustainment was not in that number.
In April 2021, with the Attack class still not built, the Australian National Audit Office reported that the project's acquisition cost had risen to $77 billion in 2021 dollars and up to $171 billion if priced through delivery. The first boat had not been laid down.
In September 2021, Scott Morrison, Boris Johnson and Joe Biden announced AUKUS. Australia would not buy the French boats. Australia would, eventually, build nuclear-powered submarines instead. The Attack-class contract was terminated. Naval Group's claim was settled for €555 million in 2022. Total Australian outlay on the cancelled program: about $4 billion. No submarine had been built.
On 14 March 2023, in San Diego, Anthony Albanese, Rishi Sunak and Joe Biden announced the Optimal Pathway. The total cost was given as between $268 billion and $368 billion over three decades. The figure was not itemised; it was offered as a range. The lower end represented the program; the upper end represented the program plus a fifty per cent contingency. Defence said the contingency was prudent. Critics said the figure was a guess. Both were correct.
In October 2023, Vice Admiral Jonathan Mead, head of the Australian Submarine Agency, brought a 178-page briefing pack to a Senate Estimates hearing. The pack, later released under FOI, did not contain the $368 billion figure. It advised Senators that "there are a range of complex variables that will affect costs over the life of the program."
In April 2024, the Albanese government released its first Integrated Investment Program. AUKUS Pillar 1 was costed at $53 to $63 billion over the decade to 2033-34. The figure was described as covering acquisition, sustainment and infrastructure. The breakdown was not made public.
On 16 April 2026, the same government released the 2026 National Defence Strategy and the 2026 Integrated Investment Program. AUKUS Pillar 1 is now costed at $71 to $96 billion over the decade. That is the same decade. The pathway has not been redesigned. No additional submarines have been ordered. The numbers have moved because the numbers have moved.
The total decadal allocation in the 2026 IIP is $425 billion. An additional $14 billion is committed over the next four years and $53 billion over the decade beyond what the 2024 program contained. The Henderson Defence Precinct in Western Australia is allocated up to $25 billion. The conventional Collins-class fleet, retained until SSN-AUKUS arrives, has had its life-of-type extension cost revised from $4-5 billion to $7.8-11 billion.
A US Virginia-class submarine procured in the FY2024 American program cost approximately US$4.5 billion at the marginal rate; the FY2025 single-boat budget request was around US$4.8 billion at procurement, with about $1 billion of long-lead material attributed to future boats. Australia is to buy three Virginia-class boats from this production line in the early 2030s, with the option for two more. The American shipyards currently produce these boats at 1.13 per year; the navy's planning rate is 2.33 per year.
The first US Virginia-class submarine sold to Australia is expected in the early 2030s. The first SSN-AUKUS built in Adelaide is expected in the early 2040s. The eighth and final SSN-AUKUS is expected in the late 2050s. The Collins-class boats, designed in the 1980s and laid down in the 1990s, will operate until the late 2030s. The first Collins replacement contract was signed with France in 2016. It was cancelled in 2021. As of 16 April 2026 no replacement boat has been built.
Across eight public moments between 2009 and April 2026, the dollar figure attached to Australia's next submarine fleet has been stated as: $100 billion across the entire ten-year capital plan with submarines as the largest line (2009), greater than $50 billion acquisition (2016), $77 billion to $171 billion to delivery (April 2021), about $90 billion acquisition at the moment of cancellation (September 2021), $268 to $368 billion over three decades (March 2023), absent from the official 178-page briefing pack (October 2023), $53 to $63 billion over the decade to 2033-34 (April 2024), and $71 to $96 billion over the same decade (April 2026). The pathway, the fleet number, and the delivery years have remained roughly constant. The figures attached to them have not.
At the National Press Club on 16 April 2026, the Defence Minister, Richard Marles, said the increase reflects what will happen over the next decade as construction encompasses the Osborne shipyard, Henderson, and the submarines themselves. He said the program remains within the 1.5 per cent of GDP that government had always imagined for it. He did not propose a number that the program would not exceed. The Shadow Minister for Defence, Senator James Paterson, who took the portfolio in February under Angus Taylor, did not contest the figures.
The number keeps moving.
Klaus Botovic is the in-house non-ageing analyst at General Strategic. He has the figures from 2009, 2016, 2021, 2023, 2024 and 2026 in front of him at the same time. None of them is smaller than the one before.